Between the visits
Who overlaps with whom
Everything here compares one visit with another: the choices that travel in pairs, the guests with the same shelf in mind, and the ones the rest of the series followed.
Picked together
Lift is how often two things are taken together against how often two things that popular would coincide by chance. A lift near 1 just means two popular choices met.
| Pair | Together | Lift |
|---|---|---|
| John Cassavetes: Five Films + La haine | 5 | 13.80 |
| La strada + Naked | 4 | 7.39 |
| John Cassavetes: Five Films + Shampoo | 4 | 4.60 |
| John Cassavetes: Five Films + The Complete Films of Agnès Varda | 4 | 2.63 |
Two directors in one closet
A pair of films is too thin to say anything about: the highest co-occurrence anywhere in this data is 5 visits, and a lift on four visits is a coin toss with a decimal point. Directors are the same question at a unit with support, and the pairs below have had the films the two made together removed from both sides of the count: 18 pairs disappeared entirely when that was done, which is what a co-credit looks like when it is mistaken for a taste.
| Pair | Visits taking both | Each reached by | Lift | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Loach and Mike Leigh | 5 | 7 · 28 | 10.6 | 4.5 to 24.4 |
| Alfred Hitchcock and Preston Sturges | 4 | 20 · 10 | 8.3 | 3.2 to 21.1 |
| Joel Coen and Stephen Frears | 4 | 20 · 12 | 6.9 | 2.7 to 17.6 |
| François Truffaut and Preston Sturges | 4 | 25 · 10 | 6.6 | 2.6 to 16.9 |
| Roman Polanski and Terrence Malick | 4 | 17 · 17 | 5.7 | 2.2 to 14.6 |
| John Waters and Rainer Werner Fassbinder | 4 | 16 · 19 | 5.5 | 2.1 to 13.9 |
| Charles Chaplin and Ernst Lubitsch | 4 | 21 · 15 | 5.3 | 2.0 to 13.4 |
| Joel Coen and Sidney Lumet | 4 | 20 · 16 | 5.2 | 2.0 to 13.2 |
| Carl Franklin and Spike Lee | 4 | 10 · 33 | 5.0 | 1.9 to 12.8 |
| Paul Thomas Anderson and Stanley Kubrick | 5 | 14 · 30 | 4.9 | 2.1 to 11.4 |
Single-film picks only, so a box set cannot make its own directors look like a pair. Every interval here is wide, because the counts behind them are single digits: read the ordering, not the ratios.
Table view
The other end is harder to read and more interesting. Among pairs where both directors are reached by at least 20 visits, these are the ones that almost never share a closet. Every interval below spans 1.0, so this is a list of candidates rather than a finding: with these counts the data cannot tell a real avoidance from chance.
| Pair | Together | Each reached by | Lift | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Lynch and Federico Fellini | 4 | 41 · 44 | 0.92 | 0.36 to 2.33 |
| Akira Kurosawa and Martin Scorsese | 4 | 41 · 42 | 0.96 | 0.37 to 2.45 |
| Federico Fellini and Michael Powell | 4 | 44 · 33 | 1.14 | 0.44 to 2.90 |
| Akira Kurosawa and Federico Fellini | 5 | 41 · 44 | 1.15 | 0.49 to 2.66 |
| Emeric Pressburger and Federico Fellini | 4 | 31 · 44 | 1.21 | 0.47 to 3.09 |
| Akira Kurosawa and Spike Lee | 4 | 41 · 33 | 1.22 | 0.48 to 3.11 |
| Akira Kurosawa and Emeric Pressburger | 4 | 41 · 31 | 1.30 | 0.51 to 3.31 |
| David Lynch and Jean-Luc Godard | 4 | 41 · 30 | 1.35 | 0.52 to 3.42 |
Closest taste
Jaccard overlap between what two guests chose. Guests filmed together are left out: 32 pairs shared one list and would otherwise score a perfect 1.00 against each other.
Do two actors choose alike
Slightly, and it takes a permutation test to see it. Two visits by guests in the same trade share 0.0082 of their choices against 0.0062 for two guests in different trades, comparing only visits filmed in the same year. That difference survives 2,000 reshuffles of the trade labels within each year at a p-value of 0.0025. Both numbers are under one percent, so the honest sentence is that same-trade pairs are more alike than chance, not that they are alike.
| Trade | Visits | Mean choices | Shared within the trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| acts and directs | 41 | 9.02 | 0.0067 |
| acts, does not direct | 114 | 8.12 | 0.0090 |
| directs, does not act | 109 | 8.14 | 0.0071 |
The sharper reading is the spread between those last three numbers: guests who act resemble each other more than guests who direct resemble each other. Jaccard also falls as lists grow, so the mean list length is printed beside it.
Table view
| Year | Same trade | Different trades | Difference | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.0075 | 0.0077 | -0.0002 | 271 · 359 |
| 2024 | 0.0072 | 0.0058 | 0.0014 | 723 · 1107 |
| 2025 | 0.0070 | 0.0060 | 0.0010 | 1072 · 1854 |
| 2026 | 0.0122 | 0.0068 | 0.0054 | 562 · 614 |
Solo visits only, since a trade is attributed only to a guest filmed alone, and only visits with at least 5 choices. Pairs are compared within a filming year and the 2000 draws reshuffle trade labels inside each year, because the trades arrived in the series at different times and a pooled comparison would also be a comparison of eras. Labels are permuted per visit and the whole statistic is recomputed each draw, which is what makes comparing 33,000 overlapping pairs legitimate. Both means are under one percent: this is a very small average difference, and within_group_jaccard is the more interesting number, since the trades differ from each other in how much they agree among themselves. Jaccard also falls as lists grow, so mean_items is published beside it. A year needs 30 pairs on each side to get its own row, and 11 years are too thin for one: the test itself uses every same-year pair regardless, since the permutation handles small strata correctly and a display floor should not change a p-value.
Got there first
Being first is partly being early: the 2010 and 2011 guests had an empty field. Read this as who the series followed, not as who has the best taste.
Guests the series followed
| Guest | Firsts | Followers |
|---|---|---|
| The Wolfpack | 11 | 62 |
| Bill Hader | 6 | 40 |
| Guillermo del Toro | 6 | 39 |
| Ariane Labed | 6 | 30 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | 6 | 30 |
| Barry Jenkins | 6 | 28 |
| Ari Aster | 6 | 25 |
| Garrett Bradley | 5 | 38 |
| Nicolas Winding Refn | 5 | 32 |
| Elvis Mitchell | 5 | 30 |
| Aubrey Plaza | 5 | 29 |
| Jeff Baena | 5 | 29 |
| Mike Leigh | 5 | 27 |
| William Friedkin | 5 | 26 |
| Benny Safdie | 5 | 25 |
Most followed choices
Obscure and obvious
Popularity is how many visits took the same thing, counted at the level of what was chosen. A box set is one choice, not its contents.
Reached for what nobody else did
Reached for what everyone did
| Visit | Mean | Choices |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Day’s Closet Picks | 14.78 | 9 |
| Stellan Skarsgård’s Closet Picks | 14.17 | 6 |
| Julia Garner’s Closet Picks | 13 | 8 |
| Joanna Hogg’s Closet Picks | 12.83 | 6 |
| Mark Duplass’s Closet Picks | 10.83 | 6 |
| Margaret Qualley’s Closet Picks | 10.83 | 6 |
| JR’s Closet Picks | 10.67 | 9 |
| Pauline Chalamet’s Closet Picks | 10.67 | 9 |
| Will Arnett’s Closet Picks | 10.5 | 6 |
| Alden Ehrenreich’s Closet Picks | 10.5 | 8 |
| RZA’s Closet Picks | 10.44 | 9 |
| Jason Bateman’s Closet Picks | 10.12 | 8 |
Came back
Overlap is the share of everything a guest has ever chosen that they chose on every visit. Counted at item level, so returning for the same box set counts as repeating one choice. The baseline block is what two unrelated visits share, which is the only thing that makes an overlap of zero readable: without it a reader cannot tell whether these ten people are unusual or whether nobody repeats anything.