Closet Picks

Analysis

What was chosen, and what came in the box

This site says 73.6% of the collection has been reached. That number is two different things added together, and the smaller half is not a decision anybody made: 422 films have never been picked on their own and are on the site because a box set they belong to left the shelf.

01

A quarter of the coverage is a box

Split the collection by how each film ever left the shelf, and the coverage figure comes apart.

1,718 films

Every film in the collection, by how it was reached
Chosen on their own: 842 Only ever inside a box set: 422 Never reached: 454
Chosen on their own 49% Only ever inside a box set 25% Never reached 26%

64 of the 486 films inside a taken set were also chosen on their own, so they count in the first segment. One set could not be opened, so its films are not counted as members of anything.

Table view
Every film in the collection, by how it was reached
Films Share What it means
Chosen on their own 842 49% A guest pointed at this film.
Only ever inside a box set 422 25% Reached because a set it belongs to was taken, and never chosen alone.
Never reached 454 26% No visit has touched it, in either lens.
All films 1,718 100% ·

Zero is arithmetic here, not a finding

Box-set membership is only known for the 102 sets somebody took, because the pipeline learns a set exists from the visit that picked it. So a film inside one of those sets has been reached by definition, and 0 of the 454 never-reached films sit in a box set. That is arithmetic, not a finding, and it is the reason this page talks about how much of the coverage is packaging rather than about what packaging caused.

The two halves of the shelf are also different cinema, which is what makes the split worth drawing rather than just worth stating. Films inside a taken set are 73% subtitled against 49% outside one, with a median of 4,943 IMDb votes against 11,288. The box sets are where the collection keeps its older, more obscure, more foreign material.

The collection inside and outside box sets
Films Subtitled Median votes Mean rating Median year
in a taken box set 486 73% 4,943 7.09 1968
outside one 1,232 49% 11,288 7.33 1972
02

The freer the choice, the more famous the film

Five measures, read across the shelf, everything reached, and everything chosen alone.

Each film counted once, in each population it belongs to
subtitled share
56% 53% 41%
falls with freer choice
median IMDb votes
8,768 11,397 18,342
rises with freer choice
mean rating
7.26 7.30 7.44
rises with freer choice
mean runtime
105 min 106 min 111 min
rises with freer choice
median film year
1970 1971 1974
rises with freer choice

Left to right in every panel: the shelf, ever reached, ever chosen alone.

One row is one film in every column, which is the comparison that holds across all three.

Table view
Each film counted once, in each population it belongs to
the shelfever reachedever chosen alone Direction
subtitled share 56% (1,686) 53% (1,237) 41% (828) falls with freer choice
median IMDb votes 8,768 (1,684) 11,397 (1,236) 18,342 (827) rises with freer choice
mean rating 7.26 (1,676) 7.30 (1,230) 7.44 (824) rises with freer choice
mean runtime 105 min (1,684) 106 min (1,235) 111 min (826) rises with freer choice
median film year 1970 (1,710) 1971 (1,258) 1974 (838) rises with freer choice

Weight the same five measures by how often each film was actually taken and one row changes direction. Subtitled films are 58% of everything reached, above the shelf's own 56%, and only 38% of what guests chose alone. The box sets that were taken most often are the subtitled ones, so counting picks rather than films puts the middle column on the other side of the shelf. That reversal is a fact about how often those sets were taken, not about how many subtitled films they hold.

The same five measures, weighted by how often each film was taken
subtitled share
56% 58% 38%
reverses: box sets pull the other way
median IMDb votes
8,768 15,286 31,030
rises with freer choice
mean rating
7.26 7.37 7.54
rises with freer choice
mean runtime
105 min 107 min 112 min
rises with freer choice
median film year
1970 1972 1976
rises with freer choice

Left to right in every panel: the shelf, every reach, every direct pick.

Here a film chosen seventeen times weighs seventeen times. The shelf column still counts each film once, because a shelf has no picks to weight it by.

Table view
The same five measures, weighted by how often each film was taken
the shelfevery reachevery direct pick Direction
subtitled share 56% (1,686) 58% (5,773) 38% (2,837) reverses: box sets pull the other way
median IMDb votes 8,768 (1,684) 15,286 (5,772) 31,030 (2,836) rises with freer choice
mean rating 7.26 (1,676) 7.37 (5,736) 7.54 (2,827) rises with freer choice
mean runtime 105 min (1,684) 107 min (5,770) 112 min (2,834) rises with freer choice
median film year 1970 (1,710) 1972 (5,843) 1976 (2,865) rises with freer choice
03

What actually predicts being reached

One attribute of a film at a time, against the reach rate of the films where that attribute can be observed.

baseline 73.6%

Difference in reach rate, with and without each attribute
spine 1200 or higher -28.1 pt
no spine number -17.3 pt
made before 1960 -11.6 pt
not in English -8.2 pt
made 2000 or later -5.7 pt
spine 300 or lower -5.3 pt
runtime under 90 min -4.5 pt
runtime over 150 min -0.7 pt
directed by a guest +0.2 pt
rating 7.8 or higher +13.8 pt
IMDb votes 50k or more +15.1 pt
in a taken box set +36.9 pt

Each row is over the films where its attribute is observable, so "without" never means "unknown": 458 films have no spine number and are in neither side of a spine row. The interval is on the difference, by Newcombe's method.

Table view
Difference in reach rate, with and without each attribute
With it Without it Difference 95% interval Note
spine 1200 or higher 53% (123) 81% (1,137) -28.1 pt -37.1 pt to -19.1 pt Over the 1,260 films where this is observable.
no spine number 61% (458) 78% (1,260) -17.3 pt -22.3 pt to -12.3 pt Over the 1,718 films where this is observable.
made before 1960 65% (480) 77% (1,230) -11.6 pt -16.5 pt to -6.8 pt Over the 1,710 films where this is observable.
not in English 70% (931) 78% (751) -8.2 pt -12.3 pt to -4.0 pt Over the 1,682 films where this is observable.
made 2000 or later 69% (226) 74% (1,484) -5.7 pt -12.4 pt to +0.4 pt Over the 1,710 films where this is observable.
spine 300 or lower 74% (285) 79% (975) -5.3 pt -11.3 pt to +0.1 pt Over the 1,260 films where this is observable.
runtime under 90 min 70% (409) 74% (1,275) -4.5 pt -9.7 pt to +0.4 pt Over the 1,684 films where this is observable.
runtime over 150 min 73% (99) 73% (1,585) -0.7 pt -10.4 pt to +7.5 pt Over the 1,684 films where this is observable.
directed by a guest 74% (202) 74% (1,513) +0.2 pt -6.6 pt to +6.2 pt Over the 1,715 films where this is observable.
rating 7.8 or higher 84% (344) 71% (1,333) +13.8 pt +8.9 pt to +18.1 pt Over the 1,677 films where this is observable.
IMDb votes 50k or more 86% (266) 71% (1,418) +15.1 pt +9.9 pt to +19.4 pt Over the 1,684 films where this is observable.
in a taken box set 100% (486) 63% (1,232) +36.9 pt +34.1 pt to +39.6 pt True by construction, not measured: the pipeline learns of a set from the visit that took it.

Two rows are worth the space precisely because they find nothing. A film over two and a half hours long is reached as often as a short one (-0.7 pt), and a film directed by somebody who has stood in the closet themselves is reached at the shelf's own rate (+0.2 pt). Length does not put guests off, and being one of them does not help.

Everything on that chart is one attribute at a time, and the attributes move together: an obscure film is likelier to be foreign, older and deeper in the collection all at once. The one claim this site publishes from that list is the language one, so it is worth reading inside cells of fame and era rather than on its own.

The subtitled difference in reach, inside cells of fame and era
How well known before 19601960 to 19891990 onwards
least known -17.7 pt (123/55) -16.4 pt (229/64) -11.1 pt (43/45)
middling -8.5 pt (89/81) -3.8 pt (169/105) -3.2 pt (59/55)
best known +6.1 pt (46/79) +10.1 pt (102/134) +3.2 pt (70/128)

The penalty is not spread evenly across the shelf: it is concentrated in the films nobody has heard of. Among the least known films a subtitled one is reached far less often, and among the best known the difference changes sign. A famous subtitled film is reached about as readily as a famous English one, which means the shortest true version of the finding is not that guests avoid subtitles but that they avoid obscure subtitles. Neither reading escapes the larger problem, which is that the shelf as it stands today is not the shelf the early visits stood in front of.

The decomposition counts films: chosen on their own, arrived only inside a box set a guest took, or never reached. Box-set membership is known only for the 102 sets somebody took, because the pipeline collects sets from the visit pages, so a film inside one is reached by definition and never_in_a_taken_set is zero by construction rather than by measurement. 1 taken set could not be opened, so its films are not counted as members. The ladder ships twice. In ladder.films one row is one film in every column, which is the comparison that holds across all three. In ladder.events reaches and direct picks count one row per visit-film edge, so a film chosen many times weighs many times, while the shelf column still counts each film once because a shelf has no picks to weight it by: that column answers what a pick looks like, not what a chosen film looks like. Each measure carries its own denominator, since ratings, runtimes and languages are missing on different films. Nothing here says packaging caused a choice: box-set contents differ from the rest of the shelf by era, language, director and fame at once, and these are those differences, not an explanation of them.

One attribute at a time, over the films where that attribute can be observed: 'without' means observed and absent, never absent-or-unknown, so each row carries its own eligible count and the collection-wide baseline is context rather than the comparator. The interval on each difference is Newcombe's, because the mark is a difference; the two Wilson intervals are there to be read on their own. This is marginal association and not an explanation: fame, spine, era and language move together. The box-set row is flagged by_construction, because the pipeline learns of a set from the visit that took it, so a film in a known set is reached by definition. Every rate is over the collection as it stands today, which has had fewer visits to be picked in at the high spine numbers.